Sea level rise risks and societal adaptation benefits in low-lying coastal areas - La Rochelle Université Access content directly
Journal Articles Scientific Reports Year : 2022

Sea level rise risks and societal adaptation benefits in low-lying coastal areas

Alexandre K Magnan
  • Function : Author
Michael Oppenheimer
  • Function : Author
Matthias Garschagen
  • Function : Author
Maya K Buchanan
  • Function : Author
Donald L Forbes
  • Function : Author
James D Ford
  • Function : Author
Erwin Lambert
  • Function : Author
Jan Petzold
  • Function : Author
Fabrice G Renaud
  • Function : Author
Zita Sebesvari
  • Function : Author
Roderik S W van de Wal
  • Function : Author
Jochen Hinkel
  • Function : Author
Hans-Otto Pörtner
  • Function : Author

Abstract

Abstract Sea level rise (SLR) will increase adaptation needs along low-lying coasts worldwide. Despite centuries of experience with coastal risk, knowledge about the effectiveness and feasibility of societal adaptation on the scale required in a warmer world remains limited. This paper contrasts end-century SLR risks under two warming and two adaptation scenarios, for four coastal settlement archetypes (Urban Atoll Islands, Arctic Communities, Large Tropical Agricultural Deltas, Resource-Rich Cities). We show that adaptation will be substantially beneficial to the continued habitability of most low-lying settlements over this century, at least until the RCP8.5 median SLR level is reached. However, diverse locations worldwide will experience adaptation limits over the course of this century, indicating situations where even ambitious adaptation cannot sufficiently offset a failure to effectively mitigate greenhouse-gas emissions.
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Dates and versions

hal-03704373 , version 1 (24-06-2022)

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Alexandre K Magnan, Michael Oppenheimer, Matthias Garschagen, Maya K Buchanan, Virginie K E Duvat, et al.. Sea level rise risks and societal adaptation benefits in low-lying coastal areas. Scientific Reports, 2022, 12 (1), pp.10677. ⟨10.1038/s41598-022-14303-w⟩. ⟨hal-03704373⟩

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