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Communication Dans Un Congrès Année : 2024

A Stochastic Framework of Risk Assessment of Flooding on Stability and Serviceability of Bridges Under a Changing Climate

Résumé

Over time, the Earth’s climate has undergone significant changes due to a variety of natural processes. During the last century, global warming has drastically increased due to human activities, which has in turn increased the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere causing an increase in global average temperature. Under a changing climate, extreme events such as floods are expected to be more severe in intensity and frequency in some regions, which in turn, could significantly impact the performance and functionality of infrastructure assets. Particularly, the built environment (bridges, roads, buildings, etc.) surrounding rivers is impacted in some regions under a changing climate, increasing the risk posed to people and assets, posing challenges in maintaining the functionality of the built environment. To address this concern, proposing a comprehensive framework under a changing climate becomes essential to evaluate the stability of a bridge due to scour and the vulnerability of the surrounding areas due to overtopping floods under a changing climate. The approach involves flood frequency analysis to determine the flood levels, their respective return periods and annual exceedance probability, in addition to determining the scour estimates correspond-ing to these return periods under a changing climate. Subsequently, risk assessment protocols are implemented to evaluate the bridge’s performance due to scouring and the surrounding areas’ vulnerability in response to overtopping floods under a changing climatic conditions. Furthermore, employing stochastic methods, particularly the Poisson pro-cess, allows for the stochastic investigation of the bridge's probability of experiencing service disruptions due to scouring in a changing climate.
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Dates et versions

hal-04644316 , version 1 (10-07-2024)

Identifiants

Citer

Bassel Habeeb, Erwan Liberge, Emilio Bastidas-Arteaga. A Stochastic Framework of Risk Assessment of Flooding on Stability and Serviceability of Bridges Under a Changing Climate. 20th International Probabilistic Workshop, May 2024, Guimaraes, Portugal. pp.233-242, ⟨10.1007/978-3-031-60271-9_20⟩. ⟨hal-04644316⟩
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